ROI of telegram bots: how to calculate payback on real numbers and what to consider in the model

Sometimes it seems that a bot is just a convenient button in a messenger. In fact, this is a small "engine" next to your business: it works quietly, saves fuel, but with proper configuration it takes you far. In order for him to get the right budget, he needs a story in numbers: a clear formula, a discipline of measurement and a few sober assumptions — without illusions and exaggerations.

Dictionary of terms used in the article

ROI (Return on Investment).(Income + Saving Is an Investment) / Investment

Payback (payback period).CAPEX / monthly net effect

CAPEX.

OPEX.

Marginality.(Revenue – variable costs) / Revenue

AOV.

GMV.

Hold on.

CR.

Incrementality.

Cannibalization.

Deflection.

AHT.

FTE.

Retention.

LTV.

CAC.LTV/CAC

Attribution.

Holdout.

UTM tags.

Deep-link.

NLU.

NPS.

Cohort analysis.

ROI Logic

ROI = (Income + Saving Is an Investment) / Investmentincremental margin profit

Three model blocks

• Revenue block (incremental sales).because

• The savings unit (automation).

• The cost block.

Where do we get the numbers from

startlead_sentorder_paidhandover_to_agent

Three examples based on real numbers

Case 1. The bot's lead in services (B2B)

8 0006%30%35%12%120 000 ₽40%240 000 ₽14,000 ₽/month6,048290 304 ₽145 152 ₽131 152 ₽/monthPayback period is about 1.8 months+556%

Case 2. Telegram store (retail)

3000 MAU12%3601,24322 200 ₽~950 400 ₽35%40%2,8%330 000 ₽15,000 ₽/monthThe net effect107,412 ₽/monthpayback — ~3.1 months~+291%

Case 3. Support service

4 000AHT 6 min600 ₽/hour35%1 minute180 000 ₽10,000 ₽/month110,000 ₽/month100,000 ₽/monthPayback period — ~1.8 months~+567%

How not to "inflate" the ROI

incrementalityCannibalizationOPEX-tails

How to capture the effect correctly

holdout-experimentlead_source = telegram_botorder_source = telegram_bot

Checklist of input parameters

• Traffic and funnel:

• Increment/cannibalization:

• Automation:

• Expenses:

Result

1.8–3 months